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Sinau rahasia COVID-19 ing Italia?

Sinau rahasia COVID-19 ing Italia?
Sinau rahasia COVID-19 ing Italia ora ana rahasia sing ujar Stefano Merler.

Apa sing bisa kedadeyan antara saiki lan 15 Juli kanthi pembukaan kaping pisanan ing Italia wingi ana ing model statistik sing dikembangake dening Stefano Merler, ahli matematika-epidemiologis Yayasan Bruno Kessler sing nggawe akun Institut Kesehatan Tinggi lan Kementerian Kesehatan. .

  1. Petungan sing diwenehake dening Merler yaiku: Nganti 1,200 korban saben dina kanthi Rt 1.25 sing dadi korban nganti 1,200-1,300 saben dina.
  2. Nganti saiki wiwit Februari 2020, Merler entuk angka kasebut kanthi tepat.
  3. Panitia 24 ahli sing menehi saran marang pamrentah Italia babagan pandemi kasebut, nemtokake lan nglaporake bakal ngatasi pembukaan maneh.

Petungan sing diwenehake dening Merler yaiku: "Nganti 1,200 korban saben dina kanthi Rt 1.25." Rt minangka langkah supaya virus kasebut cepet nyebar. Dadi Palazzo Chigi uga dikenal minangka Istana Chigi, sing dadi kursi Dewan Menteri lan papan resmi Perdana Menteri Italia, nolak ide kasebut kanggo "mbebasake kabeh."

Nganti saiki wiwit Februari 2020, Merler entuk angka kasebut kanthi tepat. Panaliten kasebut, sing ora nate digawe publik dening pamrentah, nanging publikasi Il Corriere sing bisa dianalisis lan kasedhiya ing tanggal 16 April ing Comitato Tecnico Scientifico (CTS), panitia 24 ahli sing menehi saran marang pamrentah Italia babagan pandemi kasebut, nemtokake lan dilaporake ing Palazzo Chigi kanggo ngatasi pembukaan maneh, nganggep beboyo banget kaya sing dijaluk pimpinan partai Lega, Matteo Salvini.

Rt paling anyar sing dideteksi ing kasus gejala, nuduhake periode antarane 31 Maret lan 13 April, yaiku 0.81. Iki minangka titik wiwitan. Ing ramalan mung ana petungan, ora ana sing kudu dibukak maneh lan ora. Iki minangka pilihan sing dadi pamrentah sing dipimpin Italia Perdana Menteri Mario Draghi.