Ing laporan riset ana, analis Morgan Stanley William Greene mbadek yen lenga mentah tiba $115 tong minyak, industri maskapai bisa duwe bathi. Inggih, lenga mapan dina iki ing $114.25, sawise tekan kurang saka $113.25 sak dina.

Saiki, nyedhiyakake titik rega iki mbuktekake awet, apa industri bisa njupuk kauntungan?

Analis maskapai ora optimis banget, wedi yen industri bisa mbalikke saka tren sing paling anyar yaiku nyuda jumlah penerbangan lan kursi. Minangka Greene hinted peteng, "mudhun prices lenga introduce risiko kompetisi ngrusak minangka plans kanggo kapasitas rasionalisasi lan revenue disiplin dadi korban kanggo biaya seductive lan pangsa pasar keuntungan sing digandhengake karo wutah kapasitas. Tumindak kasebut mesthi bakal ngrusak margin operasi ing siklus munggah sing didorong minyak.

Munggah rega minyak, mesthine ngrusak industri penerbangan, nanging biaya stratosfer kasebut uga nyedhiyakake tutup awan kanggo disfungsi penting industri kasebut. Kompetisi sing kuat, perselisihan tenaga kerja, ora ana wong tuwa saka regulator Washington-kabeh wis digabungake kanggo nggawe industri ing posisi sing mbutuhake pamikiran sing luwih jero. Minangka ahli industri nyimpulake marang aku: "Ora ana pimpinan, ora ana kabijakan, ora ana strategi, kabeh wong nyalahake liyane ... kabeh ngubengi Foggy Bottom nalika industri mudhun ing Potomac."

Coba masalah kapasitas. Persetujuan kanggo nggabungake Delta Air Lines lan Northwest Airlines didorong sebagian dening kepinginan kanggo nggayuh skala ekonomi. Nalika sawetara argue manawa pemotongan kapasitas minangka solusi overblown kanggo penyakit industri amarga mung sementara, akeh analis maskapai wis mbantah nganti pirang-pirang wulan manawa potongan kapasitas jero - nganti 20% saka jumlah penerbangan, miturut analis Ray Neidl - iku siji-sijine cara kanggo industri nyuda biaya lan kanthi mangkono nambah garis ngisor.

Utawa njupuk aliansi. Maskapai penerbangan sing nolak gabung wis ngupaya aliansi karo saingan minangka cara kanggo entuk keuntungan sing kompetitif lan nambah penghasilan kanthi adol tiket. Continental lan United tindak rute kasebut; American Airlines ngrencanakake ngandhani anggota parlemen AS yen kudu diidini nggawe aliansi karo British Airways lan Iberia.

Mudhun rega lenga minangka kabar apik. Nanging kanggo industri sing wis ngalami kerugian sajrone maskapai, ora ana panacea.

APA sing kudu dijupuk saka ARTIKEL INI:

While some argue that capacity cuts are an overblown solution to the industry's ills because they are temporary, many airline analysts have argued for months that deep capacity cuts–as much as 20% of the number of flights, in the opinion of analyst Ray Neidl–are the only way for the industry to reduce its costs and thus improve its bottom line.
The agreement to combine Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines was motivated in part by the desire to achieve economies of scale.
As Greene hinted darkly, “falling oil prices introduce the risk of destructive competition as plans for capacity rationalization and revenue discipline fall victim to the seductive cost and market share benefits associated with capacity growth.